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JI

Janus International Group, Inc. (JBI)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2025 results were not yet reported as of November 20, 2025; management guided that Q4 revenue will be “largely aligned with the third quarter” and margins will be lower due to geographic/product mix, with FY25 revenue guidance narrowed to $870–$880M and Adjusted EBITDA lowered to $164–$170M (midpoint ~19.1% margin) .
  • Q3 2025 revenue declined 4.7% YoY to $219.3M, but Adjusted EBITDA rose 1.2% to $43.6M with a 19.9% margin; international strength (+32.9% YoY) offset North America softness and Commercial & Other declines (TMC project timing, LTL weakness) .
  • Q2 2025 revenue fell 8.2% YoY to $228.1M; Adjusted EBITDA was $49.0M (21.5% margin), with Commercial & Other up 6.7% (partial TMC contribution), while Self‑Storage was weak amid macro/interest rates .
  • Strategic catalysts: continued Nokē adoption (installed units rose to 439k, +35.9% YoY), cost-savings at ~70% of $10–$12M run-rate, and ample liquidity/net leverage at ~2.3x supporting buybacks/M&A .
  • Near-term stock reaction likely hinges on Q4 mix/margin print, clarity on TMC timing into 2026, and confirmation of FCF conversion above target range despite margin compression .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • International strength: International revenue rose to $28.3M in Q3 (+32.9% YoY), driven by new construction recovery; margins in international have improved as volumes return .
  • Nokē adoption and product expansion: Installed units reached 439k (+35.9% YoY) in Q3; Nokē Ion has “been well received” with institutional interest; Betco expanded metal decking; redesigned Nokē web portal launched .
  • Cost actions and balance sheet: ~70% of $10–$12M annual cost savings realized by Q3; liquidity $256.2M including $178.9M cash; net leverage ~2.3x; S&P credit upgraded to BB– stable .

Selected quotes:

  • “We are narrowing the range for our full‑year 2025 revenue and updating our Adjusted EBITDA outlook…confident in solid fundamentals” – CEO .
  • “We expect revenues…largely aligned with the third quarter…now anticipate EBITDA margins to come down…driven by geographic and product mix” – CFO .
  • “Adoption of our Nokē Smart Entry system continues to progress” – CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Commercial & Other softness: Q3 Commercial & Other revenue fell 20.1%; ~70% of decline was TMC timing and LTL industry weakness; Q4 recovery timeline now partially pushed into 2026 .
  • R3 slower-than-expected: Q3 R3 growth (+0.7%) lagged internal hopes; institutional/REIT demand conversion delayed, though pipeline/backlog remain stable .
  • Margin pressure into Q4: FY EBITDA margin outlook cut to ~19.1% midpoint; Q4 margins expected down from original guide on international mix and product mix .

Financial Results

Sequential comparison (Q2 → Q3 2025):

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$228.1 $219.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)$20.7 $15.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.15 $0.11
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$49.0 $43.6
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)21.5% 19.9%

Year-over-year comparison (prior quarters):

MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025Q3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$248.4 $228.1 $230.1 $219.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)$27.6 $20.7 $11.8 $15.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.19 $0.15 $0.08 $0.11
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$64.5 $49.0 $43.1 $43.6
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)~26.0%+ (64.5/248.4; margin disclosed 21.5% for Q2’25) 21.5% ~18.7%+ (43.1/230.1; margin disclosed 19.9% for Q3’25) 19.9%

Sales channel/segment mix:

Sales ChannelQ2 2025Q3 2025
Self-storage – New Construction ($USD Millions)$93.9 (41.2%) $97.3 (44.4%)
Self-storage – R3 ($USD Millions)$52.9 (23.2%) $57.3 (26.1%)
Total Self-storage ($USD Millions)$146.8 (64.4%) $154.6 (70.5%)
Commercial & Other ($USD Millions)$81.3 (35.6%) $64.7 (29.5%)
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$228.1 (100%) $219.3 (100%)

KPIs:

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Nokē installed units409,000 (+26.6% YoY) 439,000 (+35.9% YoY)

Note: Q4 2025 actuals were not available as of Nov 20, 2025; CFO guided Q4 revenue to be similar to Q3 and margins lower due to mix .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$860–$890 $870–$880 Narrowed; raised low end
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$175–$195 $164–$170 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (midpoint)FY 2025~21.1% (implied) ~19.1% (implied) Lowered
FCF Conversion of Adjusted Net IncomeFY 2025Above 75–100% target Above 75–100% target Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q4 2025)Trend
International demandRecovery; revenue +58% YoY; margins improving Strength; international revenue +32.9% YoY Revenue similar to Q3; margins lower on mix Improving volumes; margin headwind on mix
Commercial & Other (TMC)+6.7% total; TMC partial contribution; RS doors, carports/sheds recovery –20.1%; ~70% decline from TMC timing & LTL weakness; pushes into Q4/2026 Partial recovery expected into 2026 Mixed; timing/lumpiness persists
R3 trajectoryPipeline/backlog building; conversion slower than hoped +0.7%; institutional/REIT conversion slower Stable backlog; mix affects margins Gradual; timing uncertain
Tariffs & input costsOngoing impact guided low‑single‑digit; future unmitigated $6–$8M; mitigation actions Tariffs “not material”; steel prices stable; steel secured into early 2026 No change indicated Mitigated; manageable
PricingHolding up better in Commercial vs Self‑Storage; blended improves with mix Largely stable sequentially Similar; mix-driven Stable
Backlog & pipelineStable; refined timing tools Stable; visibility impacted by project timing Stable; Q4 similar revenue to Q3 Stable
Nokē adoption409k installed; momentum building 439k installed; institutional interest; 90% theft reduction anecdote Continued expansion expected Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and positioning: “Supported by our balance sheet and cash flow foundation, we will continue to develop our suite of solutions…invest for future growth” – CEO .
  • Mix and margin expectations: “We now anticipate EBITDA margins to come down…driven by geographic and product mix” – CFO .
  • International execution: “Strength in our international segment…more than offset continued softness in the North American market” – CEO .
  • Capital allocation: “We continued our share repurchase program and are consistently evaluating M&A opportunities, which remain our top capital allocation priority” – CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • TMC timing and recovery: Approx. $11M impact implied in Q3; pushed into Q4 and 2026 due to project scheduling/weather/customer decisions; LTL sector softness also weighed .
  • Tariffs and steel: Tariffs “not material”; steel prices stable; procurement secured for early 2026; alternative sourcing and productivity/commercial actions mitigate exposure .
  • Backlog/pipeline: Stable; Q4 revenue expected to be similar to Q3; margins pressured by mix .
  • R3/institutional adoption: R3 acceleration slower than expected; institutional/REIT conversions not yet at hoped pace, but pipeline improving .
  • Pricing: Largely stable; blended pricing supported by stronger Commercial mix .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2025 EPS and revenue could not be retrieved at this time due to API limits; we will update comparisons vs Wall Street estimates upon availability. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to request limits.
  • Based on management commentary, Q4 revenue is expected to be similar to Q3’s $219.3M and margins lower than prior guidance due to mix; formal consensus comparisons will be inserted once accessible .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Expect a “mix-led” margin compression in Q4 despite revenue tracking similar to Q3; monitor international share of revenue and product mix as the primary margin driver .
  • International momentum and Nokē adoption remain bright spots; strengthening installed base and institutional interest support medium-term differentiation .
  • Commercial & Other headline risk centers on TMC timing/LTL end-market softness; expect lumpiness to persist into early 2026 before normalization .
  • Cost-savings program is on track (~70% realized), helping cushion margin pressure; FCF conversion above the 75–100% target range remains a key positive .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity provide optionality (buybacks/M&A) with net leverage ~2.3x; rating upgrade (BB–, stable) underscores improved credit profile .
  • Near-term trading: Q4 margin outcome vs lowered expectations and any signs of R3/institutional conversion acceleration likely drive stock reaction; medium-term thesis hinges on mix normalization and sustained international/Nokē growth .